Why the 49ers Could Miss the Playoffs Despite Going 12-5 Last Season

One of the most underestimated aspects of the NFL is its unbalanced schedule.

Take the San Francisco 49ers, for example.

The 49ers and their three NFC West rivals won the Schedule Lottery last season, drawing the coveted South/South rotation.

In other words, six virtual byes against the NFC South’s Falcons, Saints and Panthers, and the AFC South’s Colts, Jaguars and Titans.

We’ll label matchups with the Buccaneers and Texans as legitimate contests.

A struggling 6-11 team the year before, the 49ers went 5-1 in the “gimme” games as the foundation for a 12-5 season.

The real gift came in Weeks 11-16, when the 49ers faced the Panthers, Titans and Colts, sandwiching the Cardinals, Browns and – talk about an embarrassment of riches – a bye, and rode a momentum-building five-game winning streak to playing their best ball when the season ended with the Bears, Seahawks, Eagles and Seahawks again, the latter two in a charity-case wild card into the playoffs.

In the meantime, the Seahawks and Rams went a combined 10-2 against the South/South lightweights. It helped vault Seattle to top seeding – and the home-field lime carpet – in the NFC playoffs, and the Rams, as a postseason lucky loser, into matchups with the weakest playoff team (the Panthers) and a division winner that had taken advantage of a last-place schedule (the Bears).

Does anybody really believe the Seahawks and Rams were the two best teams in football last season? And that the NFC West was the most powerful division? If so, you’ve fallen into the trap of believing Priority 1 of the NFL schedule is to create a fair gauge by which a champion can be determined.

That leads us into the 2026 opener, where … uh oh.

The AFC North won this year’s Schedule Lottery, but we’re not here to discuss why the Steelers are a lock to make the playoffs. It’s the advantage the NFC North will have this season that has to have the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers most concerned.

The Frozen Four draw the NFC South and AFC East as schedule partners this season. For the Bears, Packers and Lions, that’s got a 6-2 (or better) head-start written all over it.

The Bears, Packers and Lions get a golden opportunity to be this year’s Seahawks, Rams and 49ers. In fact, you can pencil all three into your playoff bracket right now.

That leaves ONE wild-card spot available for the NFC West incumbent trio, presuming the division non-winner can beat Cowboys in the race to 11 wins.

Why the Niners likely won’t repeat last year

How likely are the 49ers, coming off a 12-5 season, to be that team? As they say Down Under: Not bloody likely.

The NFC West rotation this season (NFC East/AFC West) isn’t the toughest in the league, but it’s no collection of leftover cupcakes, either.

The 49ers substitute the Eagles for the Panthers (net loss), the Cowboys for the Buccaneers (break-even at best), the Commanders for the Falcons (even) and the Giants for the Saints (loss), and the Broncos for the Jaguars (loss), the Chargers for the Texans (even), the Chiefs for the Colts (loss) and the Raiders for the Titans (even).

That’s four more difficult and no easier matchups than last season. And you can only afford, maybe, one more loss?

So, the schedule says the 49ers won’t be a playoff team. But what does the roster say?

The good news is an inordinate number of injuries in the secondary in recent years has resulted in greater depth, Brock Purdy has transformed from weakness to strength, and Christian McCaffrey … gotta say, I’m a bit befuddled by the logic that he’s an accident waiting to happen simply because he was healthier than ever last season.

Other than that, the 49ers kinda resemble their sports cousins, the San Francisco Giants. And that’s not good.

The wide receiver corps has gone from Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel in their prime and a dependable Jauan Jennings to a suspended Aiyuk, a broken-down Samuel, an even older Mike Evans and a rookie (De’Zhaun Stribling) who probably wishes he followed the flow of the Mississippi and went to LSU. Heck, maybe he still can.

Star offensive tackle Trent Williams looks ancient, and that’s BEFORE two new head-to-heads with Myles Garrett.

Key heartbeats George Kittle and Nick Bosa are both coming off major surgeries, as is Fred Warner, the latter tainting a reunion with another guy last seen heading to the operating table, Dre Greenlaw.

And these are your DEPENDABLE guys.

Suffice it to say, there are so many question marks, the wily 49ers marketing staff would be wise to sell burgundy-colored Riddler gear to its more realistic Australian fans.

Alas, there’s always next year, when the 49ers could once again benefit from the NFL’s unofficial motto: The more you lose, the more help you get.